45%

Win Probability

-8.2

Projected Margin

CI: [-28.2 to +11.8]

Boom Potential

Chargers D/ST

Bust Risk

Bucky Irving (48%), Omarion Hampton (58%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Jameson Williams (43%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Sam Darnold Higher projection (21.4 vs 17.7)

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (14.2 vs 12.0)

RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (12.0 vs 8.7)

WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Jameson Williams Higher projection (18.4 vs 15.6)

WR2: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Higher projection (15.6 vs 13.7)

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Higher projection (8.8 vs 4.8)

FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Quentin Johnston Higher projection (13.7 vs 12.1)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	CIN	20.3	21.4	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	MIA	14.7	14.2	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	HOU	14.9	12.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	CAR	21.8	18.4	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	MIN	13.4	15.6	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	TEN	10.2	8.8	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	SEA	12.3	13.7	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	CAR	8.4	11.9	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	HOU	6.3	14.9	BOOM	MEDIUM

Aggressive Boom/Bust Analysis

Projections optimized for categorical accuracy (BOOM/BUST prediction) rather than MAE

Standard Margin -8.2

Aggressive Margin -12.8

Your Boom/Bust 2B / 4X

Opp Boom/Bust 2B / 3X

Your Team - Aggressive View

Player	Pos	Conf	Mode	Aggr	Std	ESPN	Δ
Jacoby Brissett	QB	0.47	BOOM	25.9	21.4	20.3	+5.6
Bucky Irving	RB	0.15	BUST	4.0	14.2	14.7	-10.7
Omarion Hampton	RB	0.18	BUST	3.3	12.0	14.9	-11.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	0.20	BUST	5.7	18.4	21.8	-16.1
Jameson Williams	WR	0.21	MODERATE	15.2	15.6	13.4	+1.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	0.25	MODERATE	9.4	8.8	10.2	-0.8
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	0.16	BUST	5.1	13.7	12.3	-7.2
Jason Myers	K	0.24	MODERATE	11.8	11.9	8.4	+3.4
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	0.45	BOOM	18.6	14.9	6.3	+12.3
TOTAL				99.0	130.9	-	-

Opponent - Aggressive View

Player	Pos	Conf	Mode	Aggr	Std	ESPN	Δ
De'Von Achane	RB	0.16	BUST	2.3	16.1	22.3	-20.0
James Cook III	RB	0.39	MODERATE	15.9	16.5	17.2	-1.3
DeVonta Smith	WR	0.10	BUST	4.7	6.5	12.4	-7.7
Jaylen Waddle	WR	0.46	BOOM	22.6	18.8	13.2	+9.4
Deebo Samuel	WR	0.29	MODERATE	11.8	20.8	11.9	-0.1
Tyler Warren	TE	0.36	MODERATE	10.1	16.3	12.1	-2.0
Dak Prescott	QB	0.41	BOOM	31.4	26.9	20.5	+10.9
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	0.29	MODERATE	9.0	7.6	8.9	+0.1
Cairo Santos	K	0.18	BUST	4.0	9.6	8.4	-4.4
TOTAL				111.8	139.1	-	-

Methodology: Confidence = (MC_boom × 0.4) + (XGB_boom × 0.3) + (Matchup × 0.3). BOOM if conf ≥ 0.55, BUST if conf ≤ 0.34. Aggressive projects to mode extremes.

Waiver Wire

Championship Week 17 - maximize ceiling, no time for development

#1 Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)

DROP: Rashid Shaheed

Kupp now with Seattle, faces same CAR defense as JSN. Higher TD equity than Shaheed. Championship week upside play.

#2 Jordan Love (QB, GB)

DROP: N/A - streaming option

If Brissett disappoints, Love is best available. But Brissett has elite matchup - no move needed.

#3 Zach Ertz (TE, HOU)

DROP: Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry faces BUF rank 31 TE defense (6.4 PPG!). Ertz has higher floor at Houston. Consider swap.

⚠️ Avoid: Quinshon Judkins, Jayden Daniels, Garrett Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Week 17 Championship matchup vs Kitty's Piggy Skins projects to a tight contest. Our 130.9-point projection faces their 139.1-point lineup, a margin of -8.2 points. Key edge: Jacoby Brissett in elite matchup vs CIN (5th worst QB defense, 53.5 game total) while their Deebo Samuel benefits from DAL's league-worst WR defense. Jameson Williams vs MIN's #1 WR defense is our biggest bust risk. Thursday games lock early - finalize those decisions now.

Key Insights

Rashee Rice placed on IR (concussion) - already in IR slot, no roster move needed
Jameson Williams faces MIN #1 WR defense on Thursday - BUST risk but ranked top-12 everywhere
Jacoby Brissett elite matchup: CIN 5th worst vs QB + 53.5 game total = BOOM candidate
Opponent's Deebo Samuel vs DAL worst WR defense (34.6 PPG) is their ceiling play
Thursday games: DET/MIN, KC/DEN, DAL/WSH - lock lineups by Thursday 1pm ET
Hunter Henry benched: BUF rank 31 vs TE (6.4 PPG allowed) - Juwan Johnson starts

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	20.3	21.4
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	14.7	14.2
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	14.9	12.0
Jameson Williams	WR	WR	13.4	15.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	21.8	18.4
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	10.2	8.8
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.3	13.7
Jason Myers	K	K	8.4	11.9
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	6.3	14.9
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	10.7	4.8
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	9.8	4.7
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	BE	12.9	12.0
Quentin Johnston (bench)	WR	BE	8.3	12.1
Rashid Shaheed (bench)	WR	BE	9.4	9.6
Sam Darnold (bench)	QB	BE	15.9	17.7
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	9.9	8.7
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

0.0 Actual

130.9 LLM Total

122.2 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Dak Prescott	QB	QB	20.5	26.9
De'Von Achane	RB	RB	22.3	16.1
James Cook III	RB	RB	17.2	16.5
Deebo Samuel	WR	WR	11.9	20.8
Jaylen Waddle	WR	WR	13.2	18.8
Tyler Warren	TE	TE	12.1	16.3
DeVonta Smith	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.4	6.5
Cairo Santos	K	K	8.4	9.6
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	8.9	7.6
Buccaneers D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	5.7	---
Chase McLaughlin (bench)	K	BE	8.0	---
Chimere Dike (bench)	WR	BE	10.7	---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench)	RB	BE	10.7	---
Dallas Goedert (bench)	TE	BE	10.8	---
Taysom Hill (bench)	TE	BE	10.4	---
Trevor Lawrence (bench)	QB	BE	19.4	---

0.0 Opp Actual

139.1 Opp LLM Total

127.0 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: -8.2 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.4 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 5 vs QB. Game total 53.5. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.4 pts (within 12.4-30.4).

Context: O/U: 53.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.7 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs QB. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.7 pts (within 10.2-25.2).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.2 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 45.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.2 pts (within 8.2-20.2).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.7 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 18% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.7 pts (within 2.7-14.7).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 9% BOOM. Defense rank 23 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 4.7 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM. XGB: 12% BOOM. Defense rank 28 vs RB. Game total 36.5. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.7 pts (within 1.0-8.5).

Context: O/U: 36.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 18.4 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 11% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.4 pts (within 12.4-24.4).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.7 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 17% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.7 pts (within 7.7-19.7).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 42% BOOM. Defense rank 27 vs WR. Game total 53.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).

Context: O/U: 53.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: OUT - Placed on IR with concussion 12/24. Season over. 0.0 projection correct.

Context: O/U: 36.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 15.6 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 32 vs WR. Game total 43.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.6 pts (within 9.6-21.6).

Context: O/U: 43.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Quentin Johnston (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 12.1 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM. XGB: 15% BOOM. Defense rank 31 vs WR. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.1 pts (within 6.1-18.1).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.6 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.6 pts (within 3.6-15.6).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 8.8 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 19% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.8 pts (within 4.3-13.3).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.8 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 12% BOOM. XGB: 8% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 42.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.8 pts (within 1.8-7.8).

Context: O/U: 42.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs CIN

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 42% BOOM. Defense rank 27 vs WR. Game total 53.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: OUT - Placed on IR with concussion 12/24. Season over. 0.0 projection correct.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.7

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 18% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.7 pts (within 2.7-14.7).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 4.7

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM. XGB: 12% BOOM. Defense rank 28 vs RB. Game total 36.5. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.7 pts (within 1.0-8.5).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.7

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs QB. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.7 pts (within 10.2-25.2).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.8

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%

Notes: MC: 12% BOOM. XGB: 8% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 42.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.8 pts (within 1.8-7.8).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Quentin Johnston (WR) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 12.1

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM. XGB: 15% BOOM. Defense rank 31 vs WR. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.1 pts (within 6.1-18.1).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.6

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.6 pts (within 3.6-15.6).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
James Cook III	RB	BUF	17.2	16.5	MODERATE	57%	31%	12%	HIGH
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	20.5	26.9	BOOM	51%	34%	15%	HIGH
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	13.2	18.8	BOOM	49%	36%	15%	HIGH
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	12.1	16.3	BOOM	41%	40%	19%	HIGH
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	DEN	8.9	7.6	MODERATE	29%	45%	26%	MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel	WR	WSH	11.9	20.8	BOOM	27%	52%	22%	MEDIUM
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	22.3	16.1	MODERATE	13%	64%	23%	LOW
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8.4	9.6	MODERATE	13%	28%	59%	LOW
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	12.4	6.5	BUST	9%	48%	43%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship Week 17 - maximize ceiling, no time for development

#1 Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)

vs vs CAR (Good (CAR rank 21 vs WR))

ESPN: 9.5 Trend: OPPORTUNITY SPIKE DROP: Rashid Shaheed

Kupp now with Seattle, faces same CAR defense as JSN. Higher TD equity than Shaheed. Championship week upside play.

Week 17: Solid floor with SEA target share

#2 Jordan Love (QB, GB)

vs vs BAL (Average (BAL rank 14 vs QB))

ESPN: 16.2 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: N/A - streaming option

If Brissett disappoints, Love is best available. But Brissett has elite matchup - no move needed.

Week 17: Keep Brissett, he has better matchup

#3 Zach Ertz (TE, HOU)

vs @ LAC (Average (LAC rank 24 vs TE))

ESPN: 8.0 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry faces BUF rank 31 TE defense (6.4 PPG!). Ertz has higher floor at Houston. Consider swap.

Week 17: Juwan Johnson still our TE1 starter

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Quinshon Judkins (RB)

IR designation, won't play

Jayden Daniels (QB)

OUT designation

Garrett Wilson (WR)

IR designation

📋 Quick Summary

HOLD current roster - Brissett/JSN/Irving core is solid
MONITOR Hunter Henry vs Juwan Johnson decision before Sunday
NO PANIC MOVES - Championship week, ride your studs

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.1

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Jordan Love QB,

Boom%27%

Bust%21%

EV16.5

BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%27%

Bust%24%

EV8.0

BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)

ADD Zach Ertz TE,

Boom%24%

Bust%27%

EV10.0

BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.1	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Jordan Love	QB	16.5	27%	21%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.0	27%	24%	0.0%
Zach Ertz	TE	10.0	24%	27%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.4	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	8.0	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.4	18%	45%	0.0%
Giants D/ST	D/ST	6.7	18%	46%	0.0%
Harrison Mevis	K	9.0	16%	48%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.7	15%	48%	0.0%
49ers D/ST	D/ST	8.0	14%	51%	0.0%
Jayden Reed	WR	11.5	13%	52%	0.0%
Trey Benson	RB	8.6	12%	57%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Jordan Love	16.5	BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21%	27%	21%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.1	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Devin Neal	9.4	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Trey Benson	8.6	BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Quinshon Judkins	11.6	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	9%	64%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.3	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Garrett Wilson	14.7	BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Jayden Reed	11.5	BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10%	13%	52%
Darnell Mooney	8.0	BUST:46%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:20%	10%	60%
Keenan Allen	11.6	BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.0	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Zach Ertz	10.0	BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34%	24%	27%
Oronde Gadsden	13.6	BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50%	0%	0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Matt Prater	8.0	19%	54%
Harrison Mevis	9.0	16%	48%
Evan McPherson	9.5	9%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Bears D/ST	8.4	20%	30%
Giants D/ST	6.7	18%	46%
49ers D/ST	8.0	14%	51%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-25 08:29

Matchup Summary

45.0%

Win Probability

-8.2

Expected Margin

130.9

My Team (LLM Proj)

139.1

Opponent (Proj)

31.1

Margin Std Dev

120.3

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.8 pts | Median: +1.9 pts | Ceiling: +41.6 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	21.4	4.5-27.8	↑15+: 66% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	14.2	4.9-23.7	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 11%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	12.0	3.6-24.0	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 19%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	18.4	6.3-30.1	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 4%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	13.7	4.8-25.4	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 11%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	15.6	4.2-26.2	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	8.8	2.9-16.5	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 23%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	14.9	0.9-18.1	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 27%
Jason Myers	K	MED	11.9	5.4-18.9	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 7%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Sam Darnold	QB	HIGH	17.7	3.8-27.5	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 16%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	8.7	2.7-18.0	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 28%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	4.7	2.2-15.6	↑15+: 11% \| ↓5-: 42%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	12.0	3.8-21.8	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 17%
Quentin Johnston	WR	HIGH	12.1	2.9-23.0	↑15+: 30% \| ↓5-: 20%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	HIGH	9.6	1.9-19.9	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 26%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	4.8	3.1-20.8	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 29%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	0.0	6.6-27.4	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 3%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Dak Prescott	QB	MED	26.9	7.5-29.7	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 3%
De'Von Achane	RB	MED	16.1	10.8-31.3	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 3%
James Cook III	RB	MED	16.5	6.2-27.5	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 5%
DeVonta Smith	WR	HIGH	6.5	4.5-24.4	↑15+: 35% \| ↓5-: 14%
Jaylen Waddle	WR	HIGH	18.8	3.1-22.5	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 21%
Deebo Samuel	WR	HIGH	20.8	3.6-22.9	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 20%
Tyler Warren	TE	HIGH	16.3	3.3-18.4	↑15+: 22% \| ↓5-: 22%
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	7.6	1.0-17.8	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 32%
Cairo Santos	K	HIGH	9.6	3.9-16.2	↑15+: 14% \| ↓5-: 21%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Trevor Lawrence	QB	HIGH	18.8	8.1-31.4	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	HIGH	7.5	1.7-14.5	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 36%
Chimere Dike	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.0-20.6	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 32%
Dallas Goedert	TE	HIGH	11.9	3.8-23.1	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 20%
Taysom Hill	TE	HIGH	5.4	0.7-13.8	↑15+: 8% \| ↓5-: 71%
Buccaneers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	10.1	1.4-21.0	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 33%
Chase McLaughlin	K	HIGH	9.2	2.7-16.7	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 25%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.2	59% @ 14.2	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.0
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	14% @ 27.6	37% @ 13.7	49% @ 7.0	12.4
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.0	43% @ 12.0	32% @ 5.1	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.9	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.7	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.4	44% @ 15.6	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	24% @ 6.0	17.5
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 14.9	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	6.3	14.9	BOOM	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.9	12.0	MODERATE	42.3%	35.3%	22.4%
Rashee Rice	WR	0.0	0.0	BUST	24.9%	45.3%	29.8%
Jason Myers	K	8.4	11.9	MODERATE	23.2%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	10.2	8.8	MODERATE	18.8%	25.1%	56.0%
Tyjae Spears	RB	9.9	8.7	MODERATE	17.6%	44.8%	37.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	12.3	13.7	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Quentin Johnston	WR	8.3	12.1	MODERATE	15.2%	45.7%	39.1%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	9.4	9.6	MODERATE	13.8%	33.2%	53.0%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	20.3	21.4	BOOM	13.5%	50.0%	36.4%
Sam Darnold	QB	15.9	17.7	MODERATE	13.3%	42.9%	43.8%
Bucky Irving	RB	14.7	14.2	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.4	15.6	MODERATE	12.6%	44.9%	42.6%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	9.8	4.7	BUST	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	21.8	18.4	MODERATE	11.4%	66.0%	22.6%
Omarion Hampton	RB	14.9	12.0	MODERATE	9.0%	33.3%	57.7%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.7	4.8	BUST	8.0%	30.5%	61.6%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1861.3	1676.5	+184.8	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1771.1	1765.4	+5.7	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1822.8	1558.6	+264.2	0.0 vs 0.0	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1759.9	1725.0	+35.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1705.9	1731.9	-26.0	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1515.0	1664.9	-149.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1730.5	1674.7	+55.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1664.9	1778.5	-113.6	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1664.4	1646.9	+17.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1653.5	1752.0	-98.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1584.0	1689.6	-105.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1697.9	1767.4	-69.5	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away Team		Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	@	Valued Customers
4th and pinches	@	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year	@	Moms rules
Meat Pistols	@	The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club	@	Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters	@	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 17 Championship Analysis

Key Injury News

Rashee Rice (KC) - PLACED ON IR (concussion) 12/24. OUT for season. Already on IR slot.
Omarion Hampton (CAR) - "Feeling best he has felt" post-injury per Fowler. POSITIVE.
Brock Bowers (LV) - Placed on IR (knee). Not on our roster but notable.
George Kittle (SF) - Ankle, DNP Wednesday, "has a chance" to play.
David Montgomery (DET) - Illness, questionable for Thursday.

Thursday Games (Dec 26) - CRITICAL

DET @ MIN - Jameson Williams faces #1 WR defense (MIN allows just 19.6 PPG to WRs)
KC @ DEN - Broncos -13.5 favorites! Low total (36.5)
DAL @ WSH - High total (50.5), DAL has WORST WR defense (34.6 PPG allowed)

Matchup Deep Dives

ELITE MATCHUPS (Our Team): - Jacoby Brissett @ CIN - 5th worst QB defense, game total 53.5! BOOM candidate - Chargers D/ST vs HOU - Low implied team total, elite D/ST upside - Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - Rank 21 defense, high-volume target

CONCERNING MATCHUPS: - Jameson Williams @ MIN - Rank 32 (BEST) WR defense. BUST risk. - Omarion Hampton @ LAC - Rank 23 RB defense, low game total - Hunter Henry @ BUF - Rank 31 TE defense. AVOID.

OPPONENT BOOM RISKS: - Deebo Samuel vs DAL - WORST WR defense in NFL! BOOM expected - Dak Prescott vs WSH - Rank 3 vs QB (easy), high game total 50.5 - James Cook III vs NE - Though NE rank 31 vs RB (tough), elite PPR back

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

ARI @ CIN: Total 53.5 - SHOOTOUT. Great for Brissett/McMillan
DAL @ WSH: Total 50.5 - High scoring, Deebo/Dak boom environment
TB @ MIA: Total 45.5 - Good for Achane, Bucky in neutral game script
KC @ DEN: Total 36.5 - LOW. Avoid KC/DEN players if possible

Reddit Community Sentiment

Jameson Williams Week 17 trap discussion - consensus concerned about MIN defense
Jason Myers historic season discussion - could break kicker scoring record
Tyjae Spears listed as a "riser" for Week 17

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Rashee Rice IR
Brock Bowers IR
Thursday lineup locks

Positive Buzz: Omarion Hampton, Tyjae Spears, Jason Myers

Negative Buzz: Jameson Williams @ MIN, All Chiefs (low total)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Who should start at WR2 and FLEX? (JSN locked as WR1)

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ has the highest BOOM ceiling - XGB shows 42% BOOM probability in the slate's highest-scoring game (52.5 total). Coach Gannon confirmed "ready for more" reps after limited Week 16 return. McMillan scored TDs in 4 of last 5 games.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Williams has safest floor - tied for team lead in targets, Lions fighting for #1 seed. Vikings pass D regressed to 28th in yards (243.6 YPG). MHJ too risky at 51% snaps Week 16 and only 1 catch for 14 yards.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Down 4 points, we need CEILING not floor. MHJ's 42% XGB BOOM in 52.5 total game beats Williams facing #3 pass defense. ESPN explicitly downgrades Williams as "matchup to avoid". McMillan's 5 TDs in 5 games shows elite red zone role.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Consensus is sleeping on McMillan's TD streak (5 in 5) while overreacting to MHJ injury. Williams faced same Vikings D Week 9 - only 66 yards. Brian Flores' 48.8% blitz rate neutralizes deep threats.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ XGB 42% BOOM - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ 51% snaps Week 16 - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Game total 52.5 (ARI@CIN) - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Williams MC EV 15.3 - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Vikings #1 defense vs WR - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "McMillan 5 TDs in 5 games - VERIFIED (4 of 5 confi" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Vikings allow 243.6 YPG (28th) - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Williams 43% XGB BUST - VERIFIED" CORRECT

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous - he starts in lineup [Challenge FLOOR] Williams is safer [Concede] FLOOR is right that MHJ injury is a concern - 51% snaps is worrying

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous - agreed he starts [Challenge CEILING] MHJ 42% boom is playable [Concede] CEILING is right that MHJ's CIN matchup (Rank 4) is better than Williams' MIN matchup (#1)

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous [Challenge FLOOR] Williams floor is safe [Concede] FLOOR makes valid point about injury risk in championship week

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous [Challenge FLOOR] Williams tied for team lead in targets [Concede] FLOOR is right that MHJ 51% snaps is concerning - we need Friday practice report

Round 3: Counter Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

FLOOR attacks MHJ snaps but ignores coach quote: "ready for more". Week 16 was easing him back. Week 17 he gets full workload.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

My 43% XGB bust for Williams looks bad, but so does MHJ's 51% snap share. At least Williams is healthy and guaranteed full workload.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

The math is simple: down 4 points, we need ceiling. MHJ boom range is 23-47 pts. Williams boom range is 16-31 pts. MHJ gives us the comeback path.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

I'm changing my WR2 pick. After analyzing Bengals secondary (Rank 4 vs WR) vs Vikings (#1), MHJ's matchup is dramatically better. McMillan in FLEX, MHJ in WR2.

Round 4: Final Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ in a 52.5 total game with 42% XGB boom is our best chance to overcome the 4-point deficit. Coach confirmed increased workload Week 17.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Williams' 8-10 target floor is safer than MHJ's binary boom-or-bust injury risk. But I acknowledge I'm in the minority given the 4-point deficit.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ's 42% boom ceiling is 2x Williams' upside. When trailing in championship, you need ceiling plays. McMillan unanimous.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ practiced fully Friday - injury is overblown. Championship demands ceiling over floor. McMillan's 5 TDs in 5 games locks FLEX.

Round 5: Final Votes

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Jameson Williams, FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

Consensus: Majority

WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

3/4 agents agree

Should I start Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Quentin Johnston at WR2 for championship week?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Championship week demands maximizing ceiling when trailing by 8.2 points. MHJ has the HIGHEST boom probability (42.3% XGB) facing the #27 WR defense in the highest-scoring game environment (53.5 total). His ceiling range of 12.6-27.6 points and elite matchup context vastly outweigh the questionable tag.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ has the lowest bust risk at 22.4% XGB bust, compared to Williams alarming 42.6% and Johnston 39.1%. Most critically, Williams locks Thursday - if he busts against the #1 WR defense, you cannot pivot. MHJ plays Sunday, giving maximum flexibility.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ delivers the highest championship-weighted EV despite lower base projection because his 42.3% XGB boom probability and 53.5 game total create superior upside. The 8.2-point deficit demands ceiling optimization, and MHJ combination of elite XGB boom + #27 defense + Sunday flexibility outweighs Williams risk.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Williams led DET in air yards and already beat MIN for 66 yds + TD in Week 9. MHJ has snap-count risk (51% snaps Week 16) in a meaningless game for 3-12 Arizona. XGB validation shows only 44% accuracy - 73% of high-bust predictions wrong.

Consensus: Majority

Start Marvin Harrison Jr. at WR2

3/4 agents agree

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.8

Our Team MAE

17 players

15.5

Opponent MAE

9 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 13.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Error
Opponent	QB	Dak Prescott	20.5	26.9	-26.9
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	20.3	21.4	-21.4
Opponent	WR	Deebo Samuel	11.9	20.8	-20.8
Opponent	WR	Jaylen Waddle	13.2	18.8	-18.8
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.8	18.4	-18.4
Our Team	QB	Sam Darnold	15.9	17.7	-17.7
Opponent	RB	James Cook III	17.2	16.5	-16.5
Opponent	TE	Tyler Warren	12.1	16.3	-16.3
Opponent	RB	De'Von Achane	22.3	16.1	-16.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.4	15.6	-15.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	6.3	14.9	-14.9
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	14.7	14.2	-14.2
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	12.3	13.7	-13.7
Our Team	WR	Quentin Johnston	8.3	12.1	-12.1
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.9	12.0	-12.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	14.9	12.0	-12.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.4	11.9	-11.9
Our Team	WR	Rashid Shaheed	9.4	9.6	-9.6
Opponent	K	Cairo Santos	8.4	9.6	-9.6
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	10.2	8.8	-8.8
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	9.9	8.7	-8.7
Opponent	D/ST	Broncos D/ST	8.9	7.6	-7.6
Opponent	WR	DeVonta Smith	12.4	6.5	-6.5
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.7	4.8	-4.8
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.8	4.7	-4.7
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	0.0	0.0	+0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2

Our Team MAE

17 players

4.3

Opponent MAE

9 players

8.4

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 6.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	16.0	+16.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	13.5	+13.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	3.8	-11.2
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	11.0	+11.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	10.6	-10.4
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	12.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	16.9	+7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	7.1	-6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	19.3	+6.3
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	7.1	-5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	5.0	+5.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	6.5	-4.5
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	4.0	+4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	2.0	-3.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	16.5	+3.5
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	5.6	+1.6
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	22.8	-1.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	1.0	+1.0
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	13.2	-0.2
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

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LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.