Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-25 08:30

45%
Win Probability
-8.2
Projected Margin
CI: [-28.2 to +11.8]
1
Boom Potential
Chargers D/ST
4
Bust Risk
Bucky Irving (48%), Omarion Hampton (58%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Jameson Williams (43%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Sam Darnold Higher projection (21.4 vs 17.7)
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (14.2 vs 12.0)
RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (12.0 vs 8.7)
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Jameson Williams Higher projection (18.4 vs 15.6)
WR2: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Higher projection (15.6 vs 13.7)
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Higher projection (8.8 vs 4.8)
FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Quentin Johnston Higher projection (13.7 vs 12.1)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN20.321.4BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA14.714.2MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton HOU14.912.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR21.818.4MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams MIN13.415.6MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN10.28.8MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Tetairoa McMillan SEA12.313.7MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.411.9MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU6.314.9BOOMMEDIUM

Aggressive Boom/Bust Analysis

Projections optimized for categorical accuracy (BOOM/BUST prediction) rather than MAE

Standard Margin -8.2
Aggressive Margin -12.8
Your Boom/Bust 2B / 4X
Opp Boom/Bust 2B / 3X
Your Team - Aggressive View
Player Pos Conf Mode Aggr Std ESPN Δ
Jacoby Brissett QB 0.47 BOOM 25.9 21.4 20.3 +5.6
Bucky Irving RB 0.15 BUST 4.0 14.2 14.7 -10.7
Omarion Hampton RB 0.18 BUST 3.3 12.0 14.9 -11.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 0.20 BUST 5.7 18.4 21.8 -16.1
Jameson Williams WR 0.21 MODERATE 15.2 15.6 13.4 +1.8
Juwan Johnson TE 0.25 MODERATE 9.4 8.8 10.2 -0.8
Tetairoa McMillan WR 0.16 BUST 5.1 13.7 12.3 -7.2
Jason Myers K 0.24 MODERATE 11.8 11.9 8.4 +3.4
Chargers D/ST D/ST 0.45 BOOM 18.6 14.9 6.3 +12.3
TOTAL 99.0 130.9 - -
Opponent - Aggressive View
Player Pos Conf Mode Aggr Std ESPN Δ
De'Von Achane RB 0.16 BUST 2.3 16.1 22.3 -20.0
James Cook III RB 0.39 MODERATE 15.9 16.5 17.2 -1.3
DeVonta Smith WR 0.10 BUST 4.7 6.5 12.4 -7.7
Jaylen Waddle WR 0.46 BOOM 22.6 18.8 13.2 +9.4
Deebo Samuel WR 0.29 MODERATE 11.8 20.8 11.9 -0.1
Tyler Warren TE 0.36 MODERATE 10.1 16.3 12.1 -2.0
Dak Prescott QB 0.41 BOOM 31.4 26.9 20.5 +10.9
Broncos D/ST D/ST 0.29 MODERATE 9.0 7.6 8.9 +0.1
Cairo Santos K 0.18 BUST 4.0 9.6 8.4 -4.4
TOTAL 111.8 139.1 - -

Methodology: Confidence = (MC_boom × 0.4) + (XGB_boom × 0.3) + (Matchup × 0.3). BOOM if conf ≥ 0.55, BUST if conf ≤ 0.34. Aggressive projects to mode extremes.

Waiver Wire

Championship Week 17 - maximize ceiling, no time for development

#1 Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)
DROP: Rashid Shaheed

Kupp now with Seattle, faces same CAR defense as JSN. Higher TD equity than Shaheed. Championship week upside play.

#2 Jordan Love (QB, GB)
DROP: N/A - streaming option

If Brissett disappoints, Love is best available. But Brissett has elite matchup - no move needed.

#3 Zach Ertz (TE, HOU)
DROP: Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry faces BUF rank 31 TE defense (6.4 PPG!). Ertz has higher floor at Houston. Consider swap.

⚠️ Avoid: Quinshon Judkins, Jayden Daniels, Garrett Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Week 17 Championship matchup vs Kitty's Piggy Skins projects to a tight contest. Our 130.9-point projection faces their 139.1-point lineup, a margin of -8.2 points. Key edge: Jacoby Brissett in elite matchup vs CIN (5th worst QB defense, 53.5 game total) while their Deebo Samuel benefits from DAL's league-worst WR defense. Jameson Williams vs MIN's #1 WR defense is our biggest bust risk. Thursday games lock early - finalize those decisions now.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 20.3 21.4
Bucky Irving RB RB 14.7 14.2
Omarion Hampton RB RB 14.9 12.0
Jameson Williams WR WR 13.4 15.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.8 18.4
Juwan Johnson TE TE 10.2 8.8
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE 12.3 13.7
Jason Myers K K 8.4 11.9
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.3 14.9
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 10.7 4.8
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 9.8 4.7
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 12.9 12.0
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 8.3 12.1
Rashid Shaheed (bench) WR BE 9.4 9.6
Sam Darnold (bench) QB BE 15.9 17.7
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 9.9 8.7
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 0.0 ---
0.0 Actual
130.9 LLM Total
122.2 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Dak Prescott QB QB 20.5 26.9
De'Von Achane RB RB 22.3 16.1
James Cook III RB RB 17.2 16.5
Deebo Samuel WR WR 11.9 20.8
Jaylen Waddle WR WR 13.2 18.8
Tyler Warren TE TE 12.1 16.3
DeVonta Smith WR RB/WR/TE 12.4 6.5
Cairo Santos K K 8.4 9.6
Broncos D/ST D/ST D/ST 8.9 7.6
Buccaneers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.7 ---
Chase McLaughlin (bench) K BE 8.0 ---
Chimere Dike (bench) WR BE 10.7 ---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) RB BE 10.7 ---
Dallas Goedert (bench) TE BE 10.8 ---
Taysom Hill (bench) TE BE 10.4 ---
Trevor Lawrence (bench) QB BE 19.4 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
139.1 Opp LLM Total
127.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: -8.2 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.4 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 5 vs QB. Game total 53.5. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.4 pts (within 12.4-30.4).

Context: O/U: 53.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.7 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs QB. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.7 pts (within 10.2-25.2).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.2 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 11 vs RB. Game total 45.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.2 pts (within 8.2-20.2).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.7 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 18% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.7 pts (within 2.7-14.7).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 9% BOOM. Defense rank 23 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 4.7 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM. XGB: 12% BOOM. Defense rank 28 vs RB. Game total 36.5. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.7 pts (within 1.0-8.5).

Context: O/U: 36.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 18.4 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 11% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.4 pts (within 12.4-24.4).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.7 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 17% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.7 pts (within 7.7-19.7).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 42% BOOM. Defense rank 27 vs WR. Game total 53.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).

Context: O/U: 53.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: OUT - Placed on IR with concussion 12/24. Season over. 0.0 projection correct.

Context: O/U: 36.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 15.6 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 32 vs WR. Game total 43.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.6 pts (within 9.6-21.6).

Context: O/U: 43.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Quentin Johnston (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 12.1 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM. XGB: 15% BOOM. Defense rank 31 vs WR. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.1 pts (within 6.1-18.1).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC0.0-0.0+0.0
14PHI8.7-2.8-5.9
13LV10.0-11.3+1.3
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX12.6-0.0-12.6
10PIT11.7-9.2-2.5
9TEN12.3-15.3+3.0
8MIN13.5-0.0-13.5
7IND14.9-11.0-3.9
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH17.5-6.9-10.6
4NYG13.8-23.8+10.0
3DEN12.7-14.9+2.2
2LV11.5-15.9+4.4
1KC6.4-24.9+18.5
  • Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
  • Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.6 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.6 pts (within 3.6-15.6).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND8.7-12.1+3.4
14ATL8.0-16.7+8.7
13MIN7.9-2.6-5.3
12TEN7.8-0.5-7.3
11LAR9.6-4.9-4.7
10ARI10.4-3.3-7.1
9WSH10.8-11.8+1.0
8BYE12.2-14.5+2.3
7HOU11.3-8.0-3.3
6JAX10.0-6.8-3.2
5TB9.3-21.4+12.1
4ARI9.7-9.2-0.5
3NO10.1-8.2-1.9
2PIT11.3-15.2+3.9
1SF10.6-9.3-1.3
  • Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 8.8 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 19% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.8 pts (within 4.3-13.3).

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.8 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 12% BOOM. XGB: 8% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 42.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.8 pts (within 1.8-7.8).

Context: O/U: 42.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15BUF10.35.02.8-7.5
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs CIN

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 27% BOOM. XGB: 42% BOOM. Defense rank 27 vs WR. Game total 53.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within 6.0-18.0).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: OUT - Placed on IR with concussion 12/24. Season over. 0.0 projection correct.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.7

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM. XGB: 18% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs RB. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.7 pts (within 2.7-14.7).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 4.7

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM. XGB: 12% BOOM. Defense rank 28 vs RB. Game total 36.5. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.7 pts (within 1.0-8.5).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 17.7

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 25% BOOM. XGB: 13% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs QB. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 17.7 pts (within 10.2-25.2).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.8

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%

Notes: MC: 12% BOOM. XGB: 8% BOOM. Defense rank 16 vs TE. Game total 42.0. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.8 pts (within 1.8-7.8).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15BUF10.35.02.8-7.5
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Quentin Johnston (WR) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 12.1

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM. XGB: 15% BOOM. Defense rank 31 vs WR. Game total 39.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.1 pts (within 6.1-18.1).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC0.0-0.0+0.0
14PHI8.7-2.8-5.9
13LV10.0-11.3+1.3
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX12.6-0.0-12.6
10PIT11.7-9.2-2.5
9TEN12.3-15.3+3.0
8MIN13.5-0.0-13.5
7IND14.9-11.0-3.9
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH17.5-6.9-10.6
4NYG13.8-23.8+10.0
3DEN12.7-14.9+2.2
2LV11.5-15.9+4.4
1KC6.4-24.9+18.5
  • Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
  • Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.6

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 30% BOOM. XGB: 14% BOOM. Defense rank 21 vs WR. Game total 42.5. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.6 pts (within 3.6-15.6).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND8.7-12.1+3.4
14ATL8.0-16.7+8.7
13MIN7.9-2.6-5.3
12TEN7.8-0.5-7.3
11LAR9.6-4.9-4.7
10ARI10.4-3.3-7.1
9WSH10.8-11.8+1.0
8BYE12.2-14.5+2.3
7HOU11.3-8.0-3.3
6JAX10.0-6.8-3.2
5TB9.3-21.4+12.1
4ARI9.7-9.2-0.5
3NO10.1-8.2-1.9
2PIT11.3-15.2+3.9
1SF10.6-9.3-1.3
  • Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
James Cook III RB BUF 17.2 16.5 MODERATE 57% 31% 12% HIGH
Dak Prescott QB DAL 20.5 26.9 BOOM 51% 34% 15% HIGH
Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 13.2 18.8 BOOM 49% 36% 15% HIGH
Tyler Warren TE IND 12.1 16.3 BOOM 41% 40% 19% HIGH
Broncos D/ST D/ST DEN 8.9 7.6 MODERATE 29% 45% 26% MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel WR WSH 11.9 20.8 BOOM 27% 52% 22% MEDIUM
De'Von Achane RB MIA 22.3 16.1 MODERATE 13% 64% 23% LOW
Cairo Santos K CHI 8.4 9.6 MODERATE 13% 28% 59% LOW
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 12.4 6.5 BUST 9% 48% 43% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship Week 17 - maximize ceiling, no time for development

#1 Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)
vs vs CAR (Good (CAR rank 21 vs WR))
ESPN: 9.5 Trend: OPPORTUNITY SPIKE DROP: Rashid Shaheed

Kupp now with Seattle, faces same CAR defense as JSN. Higher TD equity than Shaheed. Championship week upside play.

Week 17: Solid floor with SEA target share

#2 Jordan Love (QB, GB)
vs vs BAL (Average (BAL rank 14 vs QB))
ESPN: 16.2 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: N/A - streaming option

If Brissett disappoints, Love is best available. But Brissett has elite matchup - no move needed.

Week 17: Keep Brissett, he has better matchup

#3 Zach Ertz (TE, HOU)
vs @ LAC (Average (LAC rank 24 vs TE))
ESPN: 8.0 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry faces BUF rank 31 TE defense (6.4 PPG!). Ertz has higher floor at Houston. Consider swap.

Week 17: Juwan Johnson still our TE1 starter

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Quinshon Judkins (RB)
IR designation, won't play
Jayden Daniels (QB)
OUT designation
Garrett Wilson (WR)
IR designation

📋 Quick Summary

  • HOLD current roster - Brissett/JSN/Irving core is solid
  • MONITOR Hunter Henry vs Juwan Johnson decision before Sunday
  • NO PANIC MOVES - Championship week, ride your studs

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Jordan Love QB,
Boom%27%
Bust%21%
EV16.5
BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV8.0
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Zach Ertz TE,
Boom%24%
Bust%27%
EV10.0
BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Jordan Love QB 16.5 27% 21% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.0 27% 24% 0.0%
Zach Ertz TE 10.0 24% 27% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.4 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 8.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.4 18% 45% 0.0%
Giants D/ST D/ST 6.7 18% 46% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 9.0 16% 48% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.7 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.0 14% 51% 0.0%
Jayden Reed WR 11.5 13% 52% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.6 12% 57% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Jordan Love 16.5 BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21% 27% 21%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.4 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.6 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Quinshon Judkins 11.6 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 9% 64%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.3 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Garrett Wilson 14.7 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Jayden Reed 11.5 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 13% 52%
Darnell Mooney 8.0 BUST:46%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:20% 10% 60%
Keenan Allen 11.6 BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.0 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Zach Ertz 10.0 BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% 24% 27%
Oronde Gadsden 13.6 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 8.0 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 9.0 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.5 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Bears D/ST 8.4 20% 30%
Giants D/ST 6.7 18% 46%
49ers D/ST 8.0 14% 51%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-25 08:29

Matchup Summary

45.0%

Win Probability

-8.2
Expected Margin
130.9
My Team (LLM Proj)
139.1
Opponent (Proj)
31.1
Margin Std Dev
120.3
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.8 pts | Median: +1.9 pts | Ceiling: +41.6 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 21.4 4.5-27.8 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.2 4.9-23.7 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 11% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 12.0 3.6-24.0 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 19% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 18.4 6.3-30.1 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 13.7 4.8-25.4 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 15.6 4.2-26.2 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 8.8 2.9-16.5 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 14.9 0.9-18.1 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 11.9 5.4-18.9 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Sam Darnold QB HIGH 17.7 3.8-27.5 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 16% Sam Darnold
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.7 2.7-18.0 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 28% Tyjae Spears
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 4.7 2.2-15.6 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% Isiah Pacheco
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 12.0 3.8-21.8 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 12.1 2.9-23.0 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 20% Quentin Johnston
Rashid Shaheed WR HIGH 9.6 1.9-19.9 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 26% Rashid Shaheed
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 4.8 3.1-20.8 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 29% Hunter Henry

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR MED 0.0 6.6-27.4 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Dak Prescott QB MED 26.9 7.5-29.7 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 3% Dak Prescott
De'Von Achane RB MED 16.1 10.8-31.3 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% De'Von Achane
James Cook III RB MED 16.5 6.2-27.5 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 5% James Cook III
DeVonta Smith WR HIGH 6.5 4.5-24.4 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle WR HIGH 18.8 3.1-22.5 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% Jaylen Waddle
Deebo Samuel WR HIGH 20.8 3.6-22.9 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 20% Deebo Samuel
Tyler Warren TE HIGH 16.3 3.3-18.4 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 22% Tyler Warren
Broncos D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.6 1.0-17.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 32% Broncos D/ST
Cairo Santos K HIGH 9.6 3.9-16.2 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 21% Cairo Santos

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Trevor Lawrence QB HIGH 18.8 8.1-31.4 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% Trevor Lawrence
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB HIGH 7.5 1.7-14.5 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 36% Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chimere Dike WR HIGH 10.3 2.0-20.6 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Chimere Dike
Dallas Goedert TE HIGH 11.9 3.8-23.1 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% Dallas Goedert
Taysom Hill TE HIGH 5.4 0.7-13.8 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 71% Taysom Hill
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.1 1.4-21.0 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 33% Buccaneers D/ST
Chase McLaughlin K HIGH 9.2 2.7-16.7 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% Chase McLaughlin

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.2 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Tetairoa McMillan WR 14% @ 27.6 37% @ 13.7 49% @ 7.0 12.4
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.0 43% @ 12.0 32% @ 5.1 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.9 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.7 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.4 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 14.9 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST6.314.9BOOM55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.912.0MODERATE42.3%35.3%22.4%
Rashee RiceWR0.00.0BUST24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.411.9MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10.28.8MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB9.98.7MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR12.313.7MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Quentin JohnstonWR8.312.1MODERATE15.2%45.7%39.1%
Rashid ShaheedWR9.49.6MODERATE13.8%33.2%53.0%
Jacoby BrissettQB20.321.4BOOM13.5%50.0%36.4%
Sam DarnoldQB15.917.7MODERATE13.3%42.9%43.8%
Bucky IrvingRB14.714.2MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.415.6MODERATE12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB9.84.7BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR21.818.4MODERATE11.4%66.0%22.6%
Omarion HamptonRB14.912.0MODERATE9.0%33.3%57.7%
Hunter HenryTE10.74.8BUST8.0%30.5%61.6%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Championship Analysis

Key Injury News

  • Rashee Rice (KC) - PLACED ON IR (concussion) 12/24. OUT for season. Already on IR slot.
  • Omarion Hampton (CAR) - "Feeling best he has felt" post-injury per Fowler. POSITIVE.
  • Brock Bowers (LV) - Placed on IR (knee). Not on our roster but notable.
  • George Kittle (SF) - Ankle, DNP Wednesday, "has a chance" to play.
  • David Montgomery (DET) - Illness, questionable for Thursday.

Thursday Games (Dec 26) - CRITICAL

  1. DET @ MIN - Jameson Williams faces #1 WR defense (MIN allows just 19.6 PPG to WRs)
  2. KC @ DEN - Broncos -13.5 favorites! Low total (36.5)
  3. DAL @ WSH - High total (50.5), DAL has WORST WR defense (34.6 PPG allowed)

Matchup Deep Dives

ELITE MATCHUPS (Our Team): - Jacoby Brissett @ CIN - 5th worst QB defense, game total 53.5! BOOM candidate - Chargers D/ST vs HOU - Low implied team total, elite D/ST upside - Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - Rank 21 defense, high-volume target

CONCERNING MATCHUPS: - Jameson Williams @ MIN - Rank 32 (BEST) WR defense. BUST risk. - Omarion Hampton @ LAC - Rank 23 RB defense, low game total - Hunter Henry @ BUF - Rank 31 TE defense. AVOID.

OPPONENT BOOM RISKS: - Deebo Samuel vs DAL - WORST WR defense in NFL! BOOM expected - Dak Prescott vs WSH - Rank 3 vs QB (easy), high game total 50.5 - James Cook III vs NE - Though NE rank 31 vs RB (tough), elite PPR back

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

  • ARI @ CIN: Total 53.5 - SHOOTOUT. Great for Brissett/McMillan
  • DAL @ WSH: Total 50.5 - High scoring, Deebo/Dak boom environment
  • TB @ MIA: Total 45.5 - Good for Achane, Bucky in neutral game script
  • KC @ DEN: Total 36.5 - LOW. Avoid KC/DEN players if possible

Reddit Community Sentiment

  • Jameson Williams Week 17 trap discussion - consensus concerned about MIN defense
  • Jason Myers historic season discussion - could break kicker scoring record
  • Tyjae Spears listed as a "riser" for Week 17

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Omarion Hampton, Tyjae Spears, Jason Myers

Negative Buzz: Jameson Williams @ MIN, All Chiefs (low total)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.8
Our Team MAE
17 players
15.5
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 13.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Opponent QB Dak Prescott 20.5 26.9 0.0 -26.9
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 20.3 21.4 0.0 -21.4
Opponent WR Deebo Samuel 11.9 20.8 0.0 -20.8
Opponent WR Jaylen Waddle 13.2 18.8 0.0 -18.8
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.8 18.4 0.0 -18.4
Our Team QB Sam Darnold 15.9 17.7 0.0 -17.7
Opponent RB James Cook III 17.2 16.5 0.0 -16.5
Opponent TE Tyler Warren 12.1 16.3 0.0 -16.3
Opponent RB De'Von Achane 22.3 16.1 0.0 -16.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.4 15.6 0.0 -15.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 6.3 14.9 0.0 -14.9
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 14.7 14.2 0.0 -14.2
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 12.3 13.7 0.0 -13.7
Our Team WR Quentin Johnston 8.3 12.1 0.0 -12.1
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.9 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 14.9 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.4 11.9 0.0 -11.9
Our Team WR Rashid Shaheed 9.4 9.6 0.0 -9.6
Opponent K Cairo Santos 8.4 9.6 0.0 -9.6
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 10.2 8.8 0.0 -8.8
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 8.7 0.0 -8.7
Opponent D/ST Broncos D/ST 8.9 7.6 0.0 -7.6
Opponent WR DeVonta Smith 12.4 6.5 0.0 -6.5
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.7 4.8 0.0 -4.8
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.8 4.7 0.0 -4.7
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
8.4
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 11.0 +11.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.2 pts
ESPN 14.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.2 pts
90th percentile 23.8 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 18.4 pts
ESPN 21.8 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 17.7 pts
90th percentile 30.3 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 13.7 pts
ESPN 12.3 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 25.7 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 12.9 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
39%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
39% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.7 pts
ESPN 9.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.5 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 14.9 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.0 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 11.9 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 18.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 8.8 pts
ESPN 10.2 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 16.7 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 15.6 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 15.2 pts
90th percentile 26.0 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 21.4 pts
ESPN 20.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.4 pts
90th percentile 28.0 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 14.9 pts
ESPN 6.3 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 4.7 pts
ESPN 9.8 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.9 pts
90th percentile 15.2 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Sam Darnold (QB)
Sam Darnold distribution
LLM 17.7 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
38%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 27.6 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 4.8 pts
ESPN 10.7 pts
BUST
51%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
12%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 21.1 pts
MC (Historical)
12% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Quentin Johnston (WR)
Quentin Johnston distribution
LLM 12.1 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 22.9 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Rashid Shaheed (WR)
Rashid Shaheed distribution
LLM 9.6 pts
ESPN 9.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 1.6 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 19.8 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
De'Von Achane (RB)
De'Von Achane distribution
LLM 16.1 pts
ESPN 22.3 pts
BUST
4%
MODERATE
78%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 10.8 pts
Median (50th) 16.7 pts
90th percentile 31.1 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
James Cook III (RB)
James Cook III distribution
LLM 16.5 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.2 pts
90th percentile 27.2 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
DeVonta Smith (WR)
DeVonta Smith distribution
LLM 6.5 pts
ESPN 12.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.6 pts
90th percentile 24.6 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle distribution
LLM 18.8 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
44%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 22.3 pts
MC (Historical)
44% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
49% BOOM
Deebo Samuel (WR)
Deebo Samuel distribution
LLM 20.8 pts
ESPN 11.9 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
31%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 9.8 pts
90th percentile 22.9 pts
MC (Historical)
31% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Tyler Warren (TE)
Tyler Warren distribution
LLM 16.3 pts
ESPN 12.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
41% BOOM
Dak Prescott (QB)
Dak Prescott distribution
LLM 26.9 pts
ESPN 20.5 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 7.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.2 pts
90th percentile 29.8 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
51% BOOM
Broncos D/ST (D/ST)
Broncos D/ST distribution
LLM 7.6 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
20%
MODERATE
52%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Cairo Santos (K)
Cairo Santos distribution
LLM 9.6 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 16.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM